Evaluating Mail-Based Security for Electoral Processes Using Attack Trees

Since the reports of Russian interference in the 2016 United States General Election, the security of voting processes has received increased attention from both state and federal authorities. The declaration by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in January 2017 that election systems be classified as the seventeenth component of critical infrastructure is just the beginning of a need for more secure voting processes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 U.S. General Election has placed greater emphasis specifically on mail-based voting processes for electoral systems. The objective of this research is to provide greater insight into potential threats to mail-based voting processes.

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Vote at Home Policy and the 2020 Presidential Election

A recent study of mail-ballot use and voter participation found that turnout increased an average of 5.6% during the 2020 presidential election in states that mailed a ballot to every registered voter. The effects of mail-ballot delivery were even greater in jurisdictions with historically low mail-ballot usage, boosting turnout by as much as 8%.

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The National Vote At Home Institute on Florida Advancing Voting Rights

The National Vote at Home Institute has released a statement addressing the success of the 2020 election while also looking forward to the new challenges in voting that we face as a nation. Now is not the time for Florida to go backward.

According to recent national polling from Voting Rights Lab (VRL) that included Floridians, the American people are pleased with these policies as well. The NVAHI team issued the following as seven clear policies that can be passed to improve voting access in Florida:

  • Maintain and improve the single sign-up process for mail-in voting: According to national polling, 74% majority of Americans believe that all voters should have the option of voting using an absentee ballot in future elections, including majorities of Republicans (62%), independents (78%), and Democrats (86%).
  • Improve ballot tracking and voter notification: Allowing voters to track their ballot like an Amazon package is also cost-effective and can be seamlessly integrated into many voter registration systems. State bill H 103 would make significant progress in providing ballot tracking for Floridians if passed.
  • Create an online mail ballot request system
    • Provide postage-paid return envelopes: 73% of Americans support including pre-paid postage on absentee return envelopes. Florida bill H 103 would enact this rule.
  • Improve data integrity and infrastructure
  • Allow Election Day postmark acceptance: 60% of American’s oppose rejecting ballots mailed before Election Day but arriving later.
  • Increase options for ballot return: 70% of Americans approve of changes to increase voting options while only 26% disapprove.

To learn more about The National Vote At Home Institute and how the organization is changing the face of voting rights, visit www.voteathome.org

How Lines at the Precinct Depress Future Turnout

Researchers have increasingly paid attention to the impact that the administrative component of elections has on voter behavior. Existing research has focused almost exclusively on the effect that legal changes–such as voter identification laws–have on turnout. This paper extends our understanding of the electoral process by exploring how one aspect of the precinct experience–standing in line to vote–can shape the turnout behavior of voters in subsequent elections. I demonstrate that for every additional hour a voter waits in line to vote, their probability of voting in the subsequent election drops by 1 percentage point. To arrive at these estimates, I analyze vote history files using a combination of exact matching and placebo tests to test the identification assumptions. I then leverage an unusual institutional arrangement in the City of Boston and longitudinal data from Florida to show that the result also holds at the precinct level. The findings in this paper have important policy implications for administrative changes that may impact line length, such as voter identification requirements and precinct consolidation. They also suggest that racial asymmetries in precinct wait times contribute to the gap in turnout rates between white and non-white voters.

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National Vote At Home Institute on Passing of SB202 in Georgia

The National Vote At Home Institute has released a statement following the passing of Senate Bill 202 in the Georgia State Legislature that was signed into law by Gov. Kemp last week: “Senate Bill 202 is a massive missed opportunity to move Georgia forward and build on the record participation of the 2020 election. The […]

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National Vote At Home Institute Denounces the President’s Continued Attacks on Democracy and Affirms Their Mission to Protect American Elections

The American people have continued to exercise their right to vote despite ongoing disinformation campaigns to overturn a free and fair election. As President Trump continues his public calls to undermine our constitution, democracy, and election systems, the National Vote At Home Institute released the following statement:  “The President’s false claims continue to undermine the […]

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Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail

U.S. voters recently participated in the 2020 general election, which determined the next president as well as other public officials at the federal, state, and local level. While Election Day was officially Tuesday, November 3, many voters cast their ballots early—either in person or by mail. This article examines the claim that states can expect more cases of voter fraud when ballots are distributed by mail. It does not consider the consequences of early in-person voting or other challenges facing voting by mail, such as the timeliness of the U.S. Postal Service or the reporting of election results. Nor does it consider whether voters are more likely to incorrectly mark their ballots or whether election workers are more likely to incorrectly reject ballot.

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Voters Decide, Not Arbitrary Timelines

Earlier today, the President displayed his lack of constitutional and election administration knowledge by, yet again spreading misinformation about the counting of ballots and the timeline of a presidential election. His remarks do nothing more than sow doubt in our strong elections system and confuse voters on what they should expect November 3 and beyond.  […]

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