National Vote at Home Institute Launches New Mailed-Out Ballot Tracking and Forecasting Tool

Mailed-Out Ballot Estimation Tracker (MOBET) will provide key insights into 2022 election.

Today the National Vote at Home Institute (NVAHI) launched a new tool to help journalists, legislators, elections officials and the public forecast the likely level and impact of mailed-out ballots for the 2022 general election.

In the 2018 midterms, the US Election Assistance Commission reported about 42 million mailed-out ballots issued, with about 30 million of them returned. Returned mailed-out ballots constituted roughly 25% of all votes cast that year.

Our initial forecast (as of 10/14): Mailed-out ballot activity will increase at least 40% in 2022 versus 2018 levels – to an estimated 60 million mailed-out, with over 42 million returned.

Vote at Home’s MOBET information tool relies on official data originating from state and local election officials, some of it compiled by trusted sources including the U.S. Elections Project. (See Methodology below)

The MOBET tool presents mailed-out ballot totals – and eventual return rates – in four categories:

  • 9 “Vote at Home” (VAH) jurisdictions, where every active registered voter receives a ballot in the mail automatically for every election
  • 6 “No Excuse – Single Sign-Up” (NE/SSU) states, where any voter, through a single application, can sign up to automatically receive ballots for all future elections
  • 21 “No Excuse” (NE) states, where all voters are eligible to receive a ballot, but must request them for each specific election or every year
  • 15 “Excuse Required” (ER) states, where most voters are ineligible to apply for a mailed-out ballot, unless they meet a specific legally acceptable excuse

Many states where the voter must request a mailed-out ballot are not yet reporting their volume of requests. So, most states’ 2022 numbers will grow over the next few weeks as more voters apply for mailed-out ballots. For the 9 VAH states, mailed-out ballot growth will primarily result from increased voter registration totals.

As of October 14, 2022, NVAHI estimates that about 18 million more ballots will be mailed out in 2022, compared to 2018 — 60 million vs. 42 million — and that if historic return rates apply, at least 12 million more ballots will be returned (42 million vs 30 million).

In addition to providing 2018 benchmark information and showing current 2022 totals of mailed-out ballots, the table below includes estimates for eventual 2022 mailed-out ballots sent and return rates based on NVAHI research. (M = millions

State Group (*see key below(
Registered Voters as of 10/14
Percent of total US registered voters
2022 mailed-out ballots to be sent as of 10/14
2022 Estimated mailed-out ballots sent – on 11/8
2022 Estimated mailed-out ballots cast (turnout %)
2018 mailed ballots sent out
2018 mailed out ballots cast
Vote at Home (VAH)
38.7M
18.1%
38.7M
39.6M
25.7M (65%)
26.4M
17.1M
No Excuse – SSU
29.6M
13.9%
4.5M
5.8M
4.3M (74%)
4.4M
3.3M
No Excuse for all
79.5M
37.3%
10.6M
12M
10.2M (85%)
9.1M
7.8M
Excuse Required
65.5M
30.7%
<0.1M
2.6M
2.3M
2.5M
2.3M
Totals
213.2M (~215M expected by 11/8)
100%
53.8M
60M
42.6M (71%)
42.2M
30.4M

*VAH = CA, CO, DC, HI, NV, OR, UT, VT, WA

*No Ex-SSU = AZ, IL, MD, MT, NJ, VA

*No Ex = AK, FL, GA, ID, IA, KS, ME, MA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, RI, SD, WI, WY

*Ex Req.= AL, AR, CT, DE, IN, KY, LA, MS, MO, NH, NY, SC, TN, TX, WV

If the 2022 turnout rate matches 2018, that will equate to about 118 million votes cast, so mailed-out ballots will account for 35%.

That 35% is a remarkable jump from 25% just four years ago, this time with no COVID driver.

Finally, it is interesting to see how policy drives behavior. 

On average, mailed-out ballot utilization levels are:

  • Only about 4% of voters in Excuse Required states
  • That jumps almost 4x to 15% of voters in No Excuse states
  • And it jumps almost 5x to 20% of voters in No Excuse – Single Sign-up states

Better mailed-out ballot access policies are welcomed and embraced by voters.

Methodology:

While the best official source for mail ballot use in the 2022 election – the U.S. Election Assistance Commission’s EAVS report – won’t be published until mid-2023, NVAHI has high confidence in the data presented here. In addition to our long-standing expertise and our daily monitoring of data from official sources, we are appreciative of data and analysis being compiled and made timely available to us and others by various other entities, most notably the U.S. Elections Project and Catalist (a major list vendor). Since some of this data is proprietary, our weekly summaries will aggregate individual state data into the four “policy buckets” mentioned above. However, we will publish and analyze some state-specific data if it’s entirely available from official public sources. One final note about terminology, and why we use “mailed-out ballots.” The MOBET tool focuses on how voters receive their ballots, not how they are ultimately cast. The term “vote by mail” can wrongly imply that mailed-out ballots must also be returned through the U.S. Postal Service. Although most mail ballots are returned this way, in many full “Vote at Home” election system states – e.g., Oregon and Colorado — more than 50% of mailed out ballots are actually cast in-person, as voters return them to secure drop boxes, official voting centers, or elections offices.
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Deliver My Vote Education Fund, National Vote at Home Institute, and the Andrew Goodman Foundation Announce New Research Publication

Deliver My Vote Education Fund, in partnership with National VoteAt Home Institute and The Andrew Goodman Foundation, is proud to announce a new research publication, Vote-By-Mail: Modeling Voter Participation in the 2018 Midterm Election, examining the difference between five vote-by-mail policies in place in the 2018 midterm elections and the impact of the policies on voter turnout.

“Deliver My Vote is proud to be the only national nonpartisan organization leading with vote-by-mail strategies, building a sustainable grassroots, field-based model of organizing for voter access, education, and research, while partnering and growing strategic capacity with local organizations. This research demonstrates that there are indeed opportunities to engage with and empower young voters and voters of color to access their ballots through the vote-by-mail process and build toward a stronger, more representative democracy. We are encouraged that states are expanding vote-by-mail options to give voters more opportunity and choice and the evidence supports the need for such access.” – Amanda Pohl, Executive Director of Deliver My Vote Education Fund

“This rigorous study makes an important contribution to an increasingly large body of evidence revealing that when mailed-out, paper ballots are made far more accessible, voter turnout goes up significantly,” noted Phil Keisling, chair of the National Vote at Home Institute. “This doesn’t just help voters — it strengths our democracy and makes it more representative.” As Oregon Secretary of State, Keisling led the 1998 effort to create the nation’s first “Vote at Home” election system in which all active registered voters automatically receive their ballots in the mail, a system that eight states will use in the 2022 midterms.

“The Andrew Goodman Foundation is thrilled to partner with Deliver My Vote on this exciting new research. Young voters are one of the most powerful forces in our democracy, so it is imperative that they are educated about what their voting options are and have the accessibility to cast their ballot by-mail or in-person. We are excited to continue our work with Deliver My Vote to ensure that young voices are heard in the upcoming midterms and future elections.” –Charles Imohiosen, Esq., President and CEO of The Andrew Goodman Foundation

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many states to respond quickly to the changing needs of voters – namely by expanding vote-by-mail programs in many states. This provided an opportunity to expand access, grow participation, and change the way elections are run. As we enter the election season two years later, many of these expanded policies remain in place. By adopting and strengthening vote-by-mail policies, states encourage access to the ballot and therefore reduce barriers to voter participation universally. These are bedrock principles to a healthy and inclusive democratic system. Research conclusively shows that vote-by-mail policies will help us achieve these goals.

In Vote-By-Mail: Modeling Voter Participation in the 2018 Midterm Election, the researcher demonstrates that more expansive vote-by-mail policies, especially Permanent Mail Ballot Options and Vote at Home policies, increase voter turnout. For example, counties moving from either Excuse Required or Excuse Required with anAge Waiver to No Excuse vote-by-mail would increase turnout 2 or 3 percentage points. Counties with No Excuse vote-by-mail increase another 2 to 3 percentage points when moving to a Vote at Home or Permanent Mail Ballot Option policy. Overall, for Excuse Required counties, moving to Vote at Home would increase turnout 4 percentage points; 5.1 percentage points if they moved to Permanent Mail Ballot Option.

Additionally, the research finds that Vote at Home policies are particularly impactful among younger voters across racial and ethnic groups. When looking at county-level data, younger counties with a median age of 44 or lower that have adopted VoteAt Home policies show a 4.2% boost in turnout. By exploring how vote-by-mail policies have already impacted the political landscape of the United States, we identify potential to radically expand access and participation for all voters, particularly young voters. This is especially relevant as young people are becoming more politically active and consequently exploring voting options.

These findings are consistent with Deliver My Vote Education Fund’s previous research during COVID-19 that shows young voters and voters of color turn out in higher numbers when given vote-by-mail options. In Vote By Mail in 2020 and Our Opportunity for 2022, we found that, state-by-state, low propensity voters were 10x more likely to cast a ballot if they had applied for a mail-in ballot in 2020. We also observed that young voters, especially voters of color, were more likely to vote if given vote-by-mail options. Voters of all backgrounds embraced vote-by-mail as a safe way to vote during the pandemic, while also realizing the remarkable convenience.

Effective vote-by-mail policies are critical tools to improve participation in elections at local, county, state, and federal levels. If voter activation is a priority, this research demonstrates that more expansive VBM policies lead to increased voter turnout, particularly among young voters who are often the most impacted by voter suppression tactics and restrictive vote-by-mail policies.

About Deliver My Vote Education Fund
Deliver My Vote Education Fund is a non-partisan, non-profit 501(c)3 organization focused on research and education about voting-by-mail. We support deeply embedded on-the-ground organizations with tools, expertise, and resources to build trust in the vote-by-mail process within historically disenfranchised communities of color. As an education fund, we focus on empowering all Black, Latino, AAPI, Indigenous, immigrant, and young voters within specific counties or localities that our grassroots 501(c)3 local partners identify as unserved or underserved areas.

About National Vote At Home Institute
The National Vote at Home Institute is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that aims to increase voters’ access to, use of, and confidence in voting by mail, or “voting at home” – in which voters receive mailed-out paper ballots; return them either by postage-free mail or in-person to a wide range of accessible, convenient, and secure locations; and can track them online, in real-time, to ensure their vote is counted.

About The Andrew Goodman Foundation
The Andrew Goodman Foundation’s mission is to make young voices and votes a powerful force in democracy by training the next generation of leaders, engaging young voters, and challenging restrictive voter suppression laws. The organization is named after Andrew Goodman, a Freedom Summer volunteer and champion of equality and voting rights who was murdered, alongside James Earl Chaney and Michael Schwerner, by the KKK in 1964 while registering BlackAmericans to vote in Mississippi.

The National Vote At Home Institute on Florida Advancing Voting Rights

The National Vote at Home Institute has released a statement addressing the success of the 2020 election while also looking forward to the new challenges in voting that we face as a nation. Now is not the time for Florida to go backward.

According to recent national polling from Voting Rights Lab (VRL) that included Floridians, the American people are pleased with these policies as well. The NVAHI team issued the following as seven clear policies that can be passed to improve voting access in Florida:

  • Maintain and improve the single sign-up process for mail-in voting: According to national polling, 74% majority of Americans believe that all voters should have the option of voting using an absentee ballot in future elections, including majorities of Republicans (62%), independents (78%), and Democrats (86%).
  • Improve ballot tracking and voter notification: Allowing voters to track their ballot like an Amazon package is also cost-effective and can be seamlessly integrated into many voter registration systems. State bill H 103 would make significant progress in providing ballot tracking for Floridians if passed.
  • Create an online mail ballot request system
    • Provide postage-paid return envelopes: 73% of Americans support including pre-paid postage on absentee return envelopes. Florida bill H 103 would enact this rule.
  • Improve data integrity and infrastructure
  • Allow Election Day postmark acceptance: 60% of American’s oppose rejecting ballots mailed before Election Day but arriving later.
  • Increase options for ballot return: 70% of Americans approve of changes to increase voting options while only 26% disapprove.

To learn more about The National Vote At Home Institute and how the organization is changing the face of voting rights, visit www.voteathome.org

National Vote At Home Institute on Passing of SB202 in Georgia

The National Vote At Home Institute has released a statement following the passing of Senate Bill 202 in the Georgia State Legislature that was signed into law by Gov. Kemp last week: “Senate Bill 202 is a massive missed opportunity to move Georgia forward and build on the record participation of the 2020 election. The […]

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National Vote At Home Institute Denounces the President’s Continued Attacks on Democracy and Affirms Their Mission to Protect American Elections

The American people have continued to exercise their right to vote despite ongoing disinformation campaigns to overturn a free and fair election. As President Trump continues his public calls to undermine our constitution, democracy, and election systems, the National Vote At Home Institute released the following statement:  “The President’s false claims continue to undermine the […]

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